This week's PRCA event on the campaigns for the EU Referendum showed that while the polls have Remain and Leave neck and neck, there's still a long way to go.
Just how long we don't actually know yet as the date for the vote hasn't even been set, but it's also far too early to make a call on the outcome.
Most of the public haven't even begun to engage in the issues and if the last UK wide referendum is anything to go by, decisions will not be made until the last minute. In the 2011 AV referendum (albeit a very different topic), around half the voters said they made up their minds in the last 2-3 weeks and a full 12 percent decided in the last 48 hours.
That hasn't stopped the Remain team sprinting out of the blocks at the turn of the year, with a well-organised campaign, a co-ordinated message and a range of recognisable spokespeople. Cameron's long heralded reform package is not yet secured but when it is, Remain hope it will enable them to own the 'change' message rather than being portrayed as the defenders of the status quo.
Remain are making the weather in the early days. Leave, in contrast, face a rather gloomy outlook. They appear chaotic, disorganised, fighting amongst themselves for control of the message, the messenger and ultimately the money (whoever ultimately becomes the 'official' Leave group will receive a grant from the Electoral Commission).
At the moment Remain have all the momentum - a key factor in political campaigns. Yet there's a few things they should be concerned about.
First, Remain are right that economic arguments will be key in the campaign but they are allowing their economic message to be dominated by big business. Having major global corporations, especially the banks, appear to be the leading advocates for the EU is a risky strategy given their low levels of public trust. Where are the small businesses for the EU? I also wouldn't have advised David Cameron to make his economic case for the EU this week at Davos, the annual conference of the elite held at a luxury ski resort. In the end, the message that will move people will be about the role of the EU in securing jobs, wages, and living standards and Remain have to be careful they don't cede this space to Leave.
Remain also should be worried about the electoral maths. Their support, in opinion polls, skews heavily towards a younger audience. They trail overall amongst the over 35s population and are behind substantially amongst the over 65s. There's something not dissimilar about the demographic split of Remain's vote right now and Ed Miliband’s before the 2015 election, and we all know what happened then. The Scottish independence referendum is also instructive here. Younger Scots leaned towards independence but voted in much smaller numbers. Despite the 85 percent turnout overall, only 54 percent of 18-24s said they voted, compared to a staggering 96 percent of the over 65s. Remain need quickly to do the maths on turnout.
Leave have a lot of catching up to do but if they can get themselves organised, they have some natural advantages over Remain.
For one thing, they have the potential to tap into a deep set of emotions that many voters hold about society in general - financial insecurity, a loss of identity, fears about immigration or terrorism. Deployed carefully, a campaign which connects these emotions with the failings of the EU could win support, particularly against an overly rational approach from Remain. It is also much more likely to dominate the media and act as a frame for the vote in the final weeks.
Leave may also benefit from the unpredictable: 'Events, dear boy, events', as Harold Macmillan wryly observed. It's difficult to imagine many events that will suddenly make us fall in love with the EU but there may be some that will make us doubt it. More financial woes for the Euro, a deepening migration crisis or (God forbid) another terrorist outrage could all play a part in the way people think about the EU and they aren't likely to help Remain.
Finally we shouldn't lose sight of the real political fight here. Not who runs Britain but who runs the Conservatives after David Cameron. Given most Tory MPs, Tory members and Tory voters are expected to back Brexit, you would think at least one aspiring leader of the Conservative Party would back Leave. A senior Cabinet figure entering the fray would change the dynamic of the campaign, helping Leave and possibly their own future career prospects at the same time.
Who will win? Who knows. Remain are making the early running but there will be plenty of hurdles for them to get over before we know for certain if the UK will be in or out.
